Kentucky Derby 2012: Post Positions, Odds and Our Pick

I stopped by restaurant on Huntington Drive one day last week to have a drink with my friend Dave Naftzerger. That drink hit the spot, so I told my bartender friend, Cynthia Naanough, "I'll Have Another."

Since Naanough is , I left the restaurant having decided on my Kentucky Derby picks.

I'm going with winner I'll Have Another to win with favored Bodemeister, who Smith will ride, to finish second in Saturday's race at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky.

If I'm right, the exacta — a wager in which you have to pick the first two finishers in order — should pay pretty well. The odds on I'll Have Another are 12-1 and the odds on Bodemeister are 4-1.

I might box my exacta, meaning doubling my bet so that it will also pay if Bodemeister wins and I'll Have Another finishes second. The problem with that, though, is the exacta will pay much less if the favored Bodemeister wins.

There's a reason I like my hunch bet involving Smith and a girl he is dating. For , which was also run at Churchill Downs, my hunch bet was a horse ridden by Smith and one ridden by his former fiancee Chantal Sutherland. Those horses finished first and second and I went home a happy camper.

Jon White, Santa Anita's oddsmaker, picked I'll Have Another as his best play for the HorsePlayer Magazine. But he had Bodemeister as his ninth-best play because of the odds. Bodemeister, trained by , was made the Ketnucky Derby favorite after winning the recent Arkansas Derby by nine lengths.

Another contender in the field with Santa Anita connections is Creative Cause, who lost by a nose to I'll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby.

Baffert has another entry in the legendary race, Liaison, who will start on the outside in post position No. 20 and is a 50-1 longshot. Another 50-1 shot is Optimizer, trained by former Arcadia resident D. Wayne Lukas.

Jockeys in the race with local connections, besides Smith, include Kent Desormeaux (Dullahan, 6-1), Joel Rosario (Creative Cause, 12-1), Rafael Bejarano (El Padrino, 20-1), Corey Nakatani (Sabercat, 30-1) and Martin Garcia (Liaison, 50-1).