2012 Preakness Stakes Picks: Bodemeister is the Logical Choice

Prior to the running of the 138th Kentucky Derby on May 5,

My analysis was not very scientific. It was based on the fact that I had just met a friend at the Derby restaurant on Huntington Drive and, after one drink hit the stop, I told bartender Cynthia Naanouh, “I’ll Have Another.”

I wrote that since Cynthia is dating jockey Mike Smith — Bodemeister’s jockey — I tabbed that horse to finish second. For the record, Cynthia called me to say she is not actually “dating” Mike Smith, that they are simply friends who have been out a few times.

Unfortunately, I never made the bet.

Now we come to Saturday’s 137th running of the Preakness in Baltimore, the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. The third jewel is the Belmont in New York.

For the Preakness, I’m going with the same two horses, but with Bodemeister on top. This prediction is not nearly as bold as the one for the Kentucky Derby. Bodemeister has been installed the early favorite at odds of 8-5. I’ll Have Another is the second choice at 5-2.

Betting the two favorites to finish one-two, in horse racing parlance, is called playing the chalk. If they come in this way, you won’t see any $330 payoff for a $2 exacta bet. It will be far from it.

My Derby picks were mostly a tongue-in-cheek, fun thing. For the Preakness, I truly believe playing the chalk is the way to go. And many of the expects who know more about handicapping than I do are also advising to play the chalk.

, is the horse that has the best chance of ruining my exacta bet. The odds on Creative Cause are 6-1.

Bodemeister is the 8-5 favorite because he has finished first or second in all four of his races and won the Arkansas Derby by 9½ lengths. Also, his trainer, is a five-time Preakness winner.

One other thing: The Preakness is 1/16th of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby, and Bodemeister is what they call a speed horse, one that goes to the front early and maintains the lead for as long as possible. That’s what Bodemeister did in the Kentucky Derby, but couldn’t hold off I’ll Have Another.

Post time for the Preakness is 3:18 p.m. our time. I plan to get out to before that and place an off-track wager this time, then return home and watch the television coverage, which begins on NBC at 2:30.

For real horse racing enthusiasts, NBC Sports Network, a relatively new cable channel that has been televising the NHL playoffs, will televise the undercard beginning at 10:30 a.m. and also offer post-race coverage beginning at 3:30.